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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 8

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
A.J. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+134/-182).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +146 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +134.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to call the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 65.3 plays per game.
  • The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
  • A.J. Brown's 75.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 99th percentile for wideouts.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Eagles are a big 11.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to be a much smaller part of his team's air attack near the goal line this week (29.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (34.6% in games he has played).
  • A.J. Brown has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (85.0 per game) than he did last year (97.0 per game).

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