A.J. Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+125/-155).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 65.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
A.J. Brown has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 31.2% this year, which ranks him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
A.J. Brown has posted quite a few more air yards this season (106.0 per game) than he did last season (97.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has surrendered the 5th-least TDs through the air in football to WRs: 0.50 per game this year.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

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