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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 11

Indianapolis Colts vs Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+145/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -186 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -200.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

A.J. Brown has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 33.3% this year, which ranks in the 99th percentile among wideouts.

A.J. Brown's 72.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for wideouts.

The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a big 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in football.

A.J. Brown has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (91.0 per game) than he did last season (97.0 per game).

The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 4th-least touchdowns through the air in football to wideouts: 0.50 per game this year.

The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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