A.J. Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 15, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+137/-186).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +137 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.6 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
A.J. Brown has accumulated a whopping 94.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile among WRs.
A.J. Brown's 76.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 98th percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a giant 11.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.2 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: least in football.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to be a less important option in his team's air attack near the end zone this week (30.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (35.5% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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