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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 1

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+127/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +129 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +127.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to be much more involved in his team's air attack near the goal line this week (24.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (18.3% in games he has played).

A.J. Brown has posted a whopping 97.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among wide receivers.

A.J. Brown's 70.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for WRs.

The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.

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