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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 1

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+127/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +129 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +127.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to be much more involved in his team's air attack near the goal line this week (24.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (18.3% in games he has played).
  • A.J. Brown has posted a whopping 97.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among wide receivers.
  • A.J. Brown's 70.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for WRs.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.

  • The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.

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