Aidan O'Connell TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Aidan O'Connell

NFL · Player Props

Aidan O'Connell

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

TD Passes

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 3:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Aidan O'Connell TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-260/+195).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -245 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +195.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
In regards to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Las Vegas Raiders profiles as the best in football this year.

Favors Under

The model projects the Raiders as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 6th-least pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (52.7% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Raiders.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are anticipated by the projection model to call just 62.0 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Las Vegas Raiders have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.

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