Adam Thielen Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 19, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Adam Thielen has run a route on 90.8% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 84th percentile among WRs.
The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 10th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (62.6%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (62.6%).
The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the 4th-best LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.