Adam Thielen Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 10, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Carolina Panthers offensive blueprint to skew 6.5% more towards the passing game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
This week's spread implies a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -3-point underdogs.
The 3rd-most plays in football have been run by the Panthers this year (a monstrous 63.8 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
The model projects Adam Thielen to earn 9.3 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Carolina Panthers to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 9th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
The model projects the Panthers to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.

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