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Adam Thielen
NFL · Player Props
Adam Thielen
WR · Carolina Panthers
Receptions
Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers · Week 10, 2023 Updated Nov 10, 2023 1:21 AM UTC
NFL Props Adam Thielen Receptions

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -155.

Favors Over
  • The projections expect the Carolina Panthers offensive blueprint to skew 6.5% more towards the passing game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
  • This week's spread implies a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -3-point underdogs.
  • The 3rd-most plays in football have been run by the Panthers this year (a monstrous 63.8 per game on average).
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
  • The model projects Adam Thielen to earn 9.3 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Favors Under
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Carolina Panthers to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 9th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
  • The model projects the Panthers to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • The Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
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