Adam Thielen Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+134/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -146 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Adam Thielen has run a route on 90.9% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Adam Thielen to accumulate 6.0 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 11th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 53.2 plays per game.

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