Adam Thielen Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Adam Thielen to accrue 8.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Adam Thielen has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this season, playing on 94.7% of snaps vs just 77.5% last season.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Adam Thielen's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 77.8% to 71.5%.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.

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