Adam Thielen Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Adam Thielen has been among the top wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 5.0 receptions per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.
The New Orleans Saints defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.
Adam Thielen's 45.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 52.5.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Adam Thielen's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 77.8% to 74.4%.