Adam Thielen Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+125/-165).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Adam Thielen has run a route on 97.5% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Adam Thielen to accumulate 6.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 9th-most sluggish paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.66 seconds per snap.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in football.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Adam Thielen's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 77.8% to 72.7%.

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