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Adam Thielen
NFL · Player Props
Adam Thielen
WR · Minnesota Vikings
Receptions
Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants · Week 19, 2022 Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC
NFL Props Adam Thielen Receptions

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -155.

Favors Over
  • The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Minnesota Vikings have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.7 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Favors Under
  • The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • Adam Thielen has been a much smaller part of his team's air attack this year (16.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (22.1%).
  • The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
  • Adam Thielen's receiving talent has declined this year, accumulating just 4.1 yards per game vs 5.1 last year.
  • Adam Thielen's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.8% to 68.1%.
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