Adam Thielen Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Adam Thielen has been a much smaller part of his team's air attack this year (16.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (22.1%).
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Adam Thielen's receiving talent has declined this year, accumulating just 4.1 yards per game vs 5.1 last year.
Adam Thielen's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.8% to 68.1%.

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