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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-139/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Adam Thielen to accumulate 8.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Adam Thielen has been a more important option in his team's offense this year, staying in the game for 93.5% of snaps vs just 77.5% last year.

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Adam Thielen's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.8% to 70.0%.

The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season.

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