Adam Thielen Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 2:24 AM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 47.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Adam Thielen has run a route on 97.2% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers defense has yielded the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 138.0) versus wideouts since the start of last season.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (58.6%) to wideouts since the start of last season (58.6%).
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. wide receivers since the start of last season, surrendering 7.42 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the league.
The Green Bay Packers defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.