Adam Thielen Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:55 PM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+144/-203).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +179 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +144.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Adam Thielen has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 17.6% this year, which ranks in the 75th percentile among WRs.
Adam Thielen has totaled a monstrous 67.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 78th percentile among wide receivers.
Adam Thielen's 50.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 81st percentile for wideouts.
Adam Thielen grades out in the 98th percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 0.67 per game.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 9th-most sluggish paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.66 seconds per snap.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in football.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Adam Thielen's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 77.8% to 72.7%.

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