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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 10

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings

Adam Thielen Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+225/-350).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -343 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -350.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to run the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Adam Thielen to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game near the end zone this week (21.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.1% in games he has played).

Adam Thielen has put up quite a few more air yards this year (79.0 per game) than he did last year (69.0 per game).

Adam Thielen's 53.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 82nd percentile for wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-least in football.

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Adam Thielen's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 77.8% to 69.1%.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

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