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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 1

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Adam Thielen Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+201/-301).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +203 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +201.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Adam Thielen has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 26.9% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 95th percentile among WRs.

Adam Thielen has accrued a whopping 69.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 78th percentile among wideouts.

Adam Thielen's 52.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 82nd percentile for wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (58.6%) to wideouts since the start of last season (58.6%).

The Green Bay Packers defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.

The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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