Aaron Rodgers Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Touchdowns

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1500/-1700).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.4% red zone pass rate.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the best in football since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the daunting Browns run defense has given up a puny 0.70 rushing TDs per game to the opposing side: the 7th-smallest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by the predictive model to call just 62.7 total plays in this contest: the 11th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Steelers since the start of last season (a lowly 54.6 per game on average).
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 8th-fewest in the NFL.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Cleveland's collection of CBs has been phenomenal since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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