Aaron Rodgers TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 2:49 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +155 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.7% of their plays: the 4th-highest clip among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.8% red zone pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.70 seconds per play.
The Cleveland Browns defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (37.0 per game) this year.
The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-lowest level in the NFL versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year (68.2% Adjusted Completion%).
The Cleveland Browns cornerbacks profile as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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