Aaron Rodgers TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 14, 2026 5:07 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +113 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 6th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 65.1% red zone pass rate.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projections to call just 61.8 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-fewest among all teams this week.
This year, the tough Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed a paltry 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's safety corps has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 7th-best in the NFL.