Aaron Rodgers TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Steelers to pass on 58.7% of their opportunities: the 9th-highest clip among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Steelers to be the most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.2% red zone pass rate.
The model projects the Steelers offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.48 seconds per snap.
When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year.
When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Indianapolis's collection of LBs has been terrible this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) typically mean worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.