Aaron Rodgers TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 24, 2026 1:18 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+203/-223).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -285 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -223.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is indicated by the Steelers being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
The model projects the Steelers to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (64.5% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Steelers.
Our trusted projections expect the Steelers offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.27 seconds per snap.
In this week's contest, Aaron Rodgers is projected by the model to average the 6th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.5.

Favors Under

The Bengals defensive ends grade out as the 7th-best group of DEs in football since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.