Aaron Rodgers TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 7:33 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-208/+199).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -270 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -208.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a -4.5-point underdog in this game.
The predictive model expects the Steelers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.1% red zone pass rate.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run just 63.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest on the slate this week.
This week, Aaron Rodgers is forecasted by the projections to have the 2nd-most pass attempts among all QBs with 38.4.

Favors Under

The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Steelers since the start of last season (a measly 54.2 per game on average).
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, New England's CB corps has been terrific since the start of last season, grading out as the best in the league.