Aaron Rodgers TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 3:37 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+127/-150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (62.2% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Steelers.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are projected by the model to run 64.8 total plays in this game: the 7th-most on the slate this week.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
With an impressive 66.9% Adjusted Completion% (75th percentile) last year, Aaron Rodgers stands among the most accurate passers in the league.

Favors Under

This game's line implies a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Steelers last year (a lowly 53.9 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Falcons defense last year: 10th-fewest in football.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in the league versus the Falcons defense last year (66.8% Adjusted Completion%).
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Atlanta's collection of CBs has been excellent last year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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