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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
Player Prop Week 9

New York Jets vs Houston Texans

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (63.7% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the New York Jets.

In racking up a massive 36.7 pass attempts per game this year, Aaron Rodgers rates among the top QBs in the league (92nd percentile) in this respect.

When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year.

Aaron Rodgers has been among the leading touchdown passers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 1.50 per game while grading out in the 77th percentile.

The Houston Texans defense has allowed the 4th-most TDs through the air in the NFL: 2.00 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Jets are forecasted by the model to run just 63.5 total plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.

Aaron Rodgers ranks as one of the least accurate passers in football this year with a 63.0% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 23rd percentile.

This year, the stout Houston Texans defense has yielded a mere 59.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the best rate in the NFL.

When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Houston's group of LBs has been terrific this year, profiling as the 9th-best in the NFL.

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