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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-102/-128).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (64.8% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Jets.

In averaging a massive 37.6 pass attempts per game this year, Aaron Rodgers slots in among the top quarterbacks in the league (94th percentile) in this regard.

The Jets offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's unit has been very bad this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is implied by the Jets being a 3-point favorite in this game.

The predictive model expects the Jets to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Aaron Rodgers rates as one of the least accurate QBs in the league this year with a 62.9% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 16th percentile.

The New England Patriots defense has given up the 8th-fewest TDs through the air in the NFL: 1.14 per game this year.

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