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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
Player Prop Week 7

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +107 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Jets to be the 4th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.0% red zone pass rate.

The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

In registering a whopping 37.3 pass attempts per game this year, Aaron Rodgers stands among the top quarterbacks in the NFL (87th percentile) for this stat.

The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.

As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's CB corps has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New York Jets are expected by the predictive model to run just 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.

Aaron Rodgers checks in as one of the least on-target passers in the NFL this year with a 63.1% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 23rd percentile.

More Aaron Rodgers Player Props

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