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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the most pass-focused team in football in the red zone (60.9% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the New York Jets.

New York's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially deflated (and rushing stats propped up a bit) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We should be able to expect some regression with improved conditions in this week's contest.

Since the start of last season, the porous Broncos defense has conceded a massive 73.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the highest rate in football.

The Broncos defense has been gouged for the 5th-most passing TDs in football: 1.60 per game since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Jets, who are favored by 6 points.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are forecasted by the model to run only 62.8 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The Jets offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.

The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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