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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Jets to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (65.5% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Jets.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 130.0 total plays run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.

The leading projections forecast Aaron Rodgers to attempt 36.2 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-most out of all QBs.

When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the New York Jets profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Jets, who are favored by 4.5 points.

The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the New York Jets this year (just 56.2 per game on average).

With a subpar 63.8% Adjusted Completion% (21st percentile) this year, Aaron Rodgers ranks as one of the least on-target quarterbacks in football.

As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Indianapolis's CB corps has been terrific this year, ranking as the 6th-best in football.

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