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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
Player Prop Week 7

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-190/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -190.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.

The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.

Aaron Rodgers has been among the most on-target passers in the league this year with an impressive 68.1% Completion%, ranking in the 85th percentile.

The Washington Commanders defense has given up the 4th-most touchdowns through the air in the league: 2.00 per game this year.

The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 8th-least in the league.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in the league versus the Washington Commanders defense this year (66.5%).

The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

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