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Aaron Rodgers
NFL · Player Props
Aaron Rodgers
QB · Green Bay Packers
TD Passes
Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022 Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC
NFL Props Aaron Rodgers TD Passes

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-141/+111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -141.

Favors Over
  • THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.8% red zone pass rate.
  • Aaron Rodgers has been among the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a stellar 73.4% Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.
  • Aaron Rodgers has been among the top touchdown throwers in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 2.05 per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.
  • The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
  • The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Favors Under
  • The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in the NFL versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season (65.8%).
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