Aaron Rodgers TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

TD Passes

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-141/+111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.8% red zone pass rate.
Aaron Rodgers has been among the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a stellar 73.4% Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.
Aaron Rodgers has been among the top touchdown throwers in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 2.05 per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in the NFL versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season (65.8%).