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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+102/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +112 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.9% red zone pass rate.

The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Aaron Rodgers has been among the top touchdown passers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 1.75 per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-highest rate in the league against the Chicago Bears defense this year (74.3%).

The Chicago Bears defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 59.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to attempt 30.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 6th-least of all QBs.

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