Aaron Rodgers TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

TD Passes

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-220/+170).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 5th-most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.7% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to attempt 39.9 passes this week, on average: the 4th-most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-lowest level in football vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season (68.0%).
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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