Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+454/-565).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -565.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A rushing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
The model projects the Steelers offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.48 seconds per snap.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) typically mean worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.
This year, the anemic Colts run defense has yielded a staggering 124.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 9th-most in football.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 9th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 41.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects Aaron Rodgers to accumulate 2.5 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 7th-fewest out of all QBs.
With a very bad tally of 3.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (9th percentile), Aaron Rodgers stands as one of the weakest rushing QBs in the league last year.
With an awful rate of 0.90 yards-after-contact (25th percentile), Aaron Rodgers rates among the weakest rushing quarterbacks in football since the start of last season.
The Colts linebackers rank as the 4th-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.