Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 3:37 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+100/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line implies a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are projected by the model to run 64.8 total plays in this game: the 7th-most on the slate this week.
The opposing side have rushed for the 10th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (127 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense last year.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 6th-least run-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 37.7% run rate.
The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Steelers last year (a lowly 53.9 per game on average).
Our trusted projections expect Aaron Rodgers to notch 2.1 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
Accounting for just 3.7% of his offense's rush attempts last year (10th percentile among QBs), Aaron Rodgers's lack of mobility makes him no threat with his legs.
Aaron Rodgers has averaged just 3.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground last year, one of the smallest figures in the league when it comes to QBs (10th percentile).