Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 12:30 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a big 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to be a more important option in his team's run game this week (8.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.1% in games he has played).
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-most yards in the league (131 per game) versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season.
The Chicago Bears linebackers grade out as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 4th-least run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 34.8% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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