Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 224.5 (-112/-107).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 224.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 224.5 @ -107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Steelers to pass on 58.7% of their opportunities: the 9th-highest clip among all teams this week.
The model projects the Steelers offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.48 seconds per snap.
When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 3rd-most adjusted yards in football (277.0 per game) versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has shown poor efficiency this year, yielding 9.41 adjusted yards-per-target: the most in the NFL.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) typically mean worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.