Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing Yards

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 7:33 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 207.5 (-102/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 206.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 207.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a -4.5-point underdog in this game.
The predictive model expects the Steelers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run just 63.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest on the slate this week.
This week, Aaron Rodgers is forecasted by the projections to have the 2nd-most pass attempts among all QBs with 38.4.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Steelers profiles as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Steelers since the start of last season (a measly 54.2 per game on average).
The New England Patriots defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the most in football.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, New England's CB corps has been terrific since the start of last season, grading out as the best in the league.