Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 3:37 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 212.5 (-105/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 216.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 212.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (62.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are projected by the model to run 64.8 total plays in this game: the 7th-most on the slate this week.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
With an impressive 66.9% Adjusted Completion% (75th percentile) last year, Aaron Rodgers stands among the most accurate passers in the league.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the most in the league.

Favors Under

This game's line implies a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Steelers last year (a lowly 53.9 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Falcons defense last year: 10th-fewest in football.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in the league versus the Falcons defense last year (66.8% Adjusted Completion%).
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Atlanta's collection of CBs has been excellent last year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.