Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · New York Jets

Passing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2024

Updated Dec 8, 2024 7:21 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 225.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 228.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 225.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jets to pass on 63.7% of their chances: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
In this contest, Aaron Rodgers is anticipated by the projection model to wind up with the 7th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 37.5.
As it relates to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the New York Jets grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.
The Miami Dolphins defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.23 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 7th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The projections expect this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.7 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 7th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 217.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Dolphins defense this year.