Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

Passing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 264.5 (+100/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 260.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 264.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.8% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Aaron Rodgers has been among the most on-target QBs in the league this year with an impressive 67.9% Completion%, checking in at the 86th percentile.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 8th-most yards in the NFL (270.0 per game) vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in the NFL against the Detroit Lions defense this year (75.9%).

Favors Under

The Packers are a heavy 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Aaron Rodgers's pass-game efficiency has worsened this year, compiling a mere 6.99 yards-per-target vs a 8.15 mark last year.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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