Aaron Rodgers Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · New York Jets

Interceptions

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 30, 2024 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football (63.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the New York Jets.
New York's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially deflated (and rushing stats propped up a bit) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We should be able to expect some regression with improved conditions in this week's contest.
Denver's defense profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season as it relates to causing interceptions, notching a mere 0.63 per game.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Jets, who are favored by 6 points.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are forecasted by the model to run only 62.8 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Jets offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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