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Aaron Rodgers
NFL · Player Props
Aaron Rodgers
QB · New York Jets
Completions
New York Jets vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2024 Updated Sep 30, 2024 12:06 AM EST
NFL Props Aaron Rodgers Completions

Aaron Rodgers Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -118.

Favors Over
  • At the present time, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football (63.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the New York Jets.
  • New York's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially deflated (and rushing stats propped up a bit) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We should be able to expect some regression with improved conditions in this week's contest.
  • Since the start of last season, the porous Broncos defense has conceded a massive 73.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the highest rate in football.
Favors Under
  • This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Jets, who are favored by 6 points.
  • Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are forecasted by the model to run only 62.8 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The Jets offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
  • The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
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