Aaron Rodgers Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · New York Jets

Completions

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 30, 2024 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football (63.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the New York Jets.
New York's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially deflated (and rushing stats propped up a bit) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We should be able to expect some regression with improved conditions in this week's contest.
Since the start of last season, the porous Broncos defense has conceded a massive 73.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the highest rate in football.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Jets, who are favored by 6 points.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are forecasted by the model to run only 62.8 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Jets offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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