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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers Completions
Player Prop Week 3

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

Aaron Rodgers Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-104/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the New York Jets to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Jets have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game efficiency when facing better conditions in this game.

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Opposing teams have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-highest level in the NFL against the Patriots defense since the start of last season (71.8% Adjusted Completion%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Jets are overwhelmingly favored in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.

The model projects the Jets to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.0 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

As it relates to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Jets grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season.

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