Aaron Rodgers Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · New York Jets

Completions

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Jets · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 9, 2024 8:11 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Jets being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's game.
The model projects the Jets to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The New York Jets have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football last year, which should lead to higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing offense effectiveness when facing more favorable conditions in this week's contest.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New York Jets are expected by the projections to run just 63.0 total plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually prompt lessened passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher run volume.
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the worst in football last year.
When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, San Francisco's LB corps has been tremendous last year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.