Aaron Rodgers Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

Completions

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Rodgers has been among the most on-target passers in football this year with a stellar 69.1% Completion%, checking in at the 91st percentile.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 7th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to attempt 34.7 passes this week, on average: the 6th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.

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