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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers Carries
Player Prop Week 3

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

Aaron Rodgers Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Jets are overwhelmingly favored in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.

While Aaron Rodgers has been responsible for 1.6% of his offense's carries in games he has played since the start of last season, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of New York's run game in this week's game at 6.8%.

The Patriots safeties project as the 29th-worst collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New York Jets to run on 40.3% of their downs: the 10th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

The model projects the Jets to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.0 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The Jets have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game efficiency when facing better conditions in this game.

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

In this week's game, Aaron Rodgers is projected by the projection model to total the 4th-fewest carries out of all QBs with 1.6.

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