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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+200/-290).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +260 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +200.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Vikings being a heavy -9.5-point underdog this week.
  • The projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (64.0% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Vikings.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Aaron Jones has been an integral part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 18.9% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by the model to run just 62.2 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The 10th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Vikings this year (a measly 53.3 per game on average).
  • Aaron Jones's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 88.8% to 62.4%.
  • This year, the fierce Detroit Lions defense has allowed a feeble 75.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 5th-smallest rate in the league.
  • The Detroit Lions defense has yielded the fewest touchdowns through the air in the league to running backs: 0.00 per game this year.

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