Aaron Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (-150/+120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 42.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Aaron Jones has received 47.2% of his offense's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in run blocking.
Aaron Jones has run for substantially more yards per game (75.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Jets defense has produced the 7th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding just 4.26 yards-per-carry.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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